The past 4 games have been the 2nd worst 4-game offensive stretch since Cliff Robinson was in Storrs..
The number 7 has not been lucky for UConn. In all of Jim Calhoun’s 26 years coaching 3 of his 5 worst seasons (by either total losses or winning percentage) were 1986-87, 1996-97 and 2006-07. They all make sense as rebuilding years in their own way. ’86-87 was Calhoun’s first year when the team was starting Cliff Robinson’s bong at power forward. In ’96-’97 the team had said goodbye to Ray Allen, Travis Knight and Doron Scheffer, and there was plenty of playing time for the class that would become the nucleus of the school’s first national championship team. Plus the team was hampered by the suspensions of Ricky Moore and Kirk King. ’06-’07 was a complete reload after UConn lost 5 players to the NBA draft and 2 more to graduation. There have been other bad years for sure (2009-10 raises it’s hand), but none produced the same consistent offensive ineptitude as these three years—until now.
Wednesday’s game was UConn’s lowest points per weighted shot output going back to at least 1997. I don’t have data going beyond that so it could easily be the lowest PPWS output of the Calhoun era. Prior to yesterday .06 PPWS separated UConn’s lowest PPWS output (a 0.72 PPWS, 66-49 loss at LSU on 1/6/07) from their 8th lowest (a 0.78 PPWS, 65-53 loss to Syracuse on 1/27/97). Now .06 PPWS separates UConn’s new lowest output from its previous nadir.
But yesterday’s game wasn’t an isolated meltdown. In fact by scoring only 44 points last night, UConn has set a new season-low in points in each of the past three games (they had 48 v. Notre Dame and 57 v. Tennessee). That’s good for the 2nd worst 3-game point output in the Calhoun era. The only worse 3-game stretch came during January of the 1997 season. The Huskies scored 46 in a loss at Miami then scored 53 and 47 in home losses to Syracuse and Providence respectively.
If it feels like I’m cherry picking the sample, we can open it up to 4- and 5-game stretches. The current 4-game losing streak (which includes a 70-67 loss to Cincinnati) is the 4th lowest scoring 4-game stretch in the Calhoun era. Of course the top 3 all involve the same clusters of games from the ’97 season. The previously mentioned 3-game streak (@ Miami, Syracuse, Providence) was bookended by a 73-65 home loss to Kansas and a 62-55 victory over Seton Hall. Adding either to the previous 3 produces a worse 4-game stretch than UConn’s past 4 games. The same is true of starting with the Syracuse loss (the mid-point of ‘97’s 3 game disaster) and adding the 52-51 defeat against Georgetown.
If we open up the sample to 5-game stretches (and add UConn’s victory at the Joyce Center this year), we get similar results. There are clusters of games from 1997 (the same suspects) and 1987 ahead of this year. The worst ’97 entry is the five games discussed in the previous paragraph (259 total points, starting with Kansas and ending with Georgetown). The worst of the ’87 clusters is a 269 point stretch featuring a 73-52 loss at Pitt, a 75-50 loss at St. Peter’s, a 64-54 win against Holy Cross, a 59-53 loss at Syracuse, and a 78-50 lost to Georgetown. The next entry, not involving games from the previous clusters, is the 283 points scored over the past five games.
Points per game isn’t the best measure of an offense because it’s quite dependent on the pace of the game, which is determined by an opponent. For instance, the difference between UConn’s points scored Sunday (44) and Wednesday (48) is only 4. This doesn’t seem like much of a difference until you consider that there were 18 more possessions played in Wednesday’s game (which is why it’s the lowest total in points per weighted shot, which takes pace into account). Unfortunately I don’t have access to possession data for games that were played prior to 1997.
By offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) this past 3-game stretch has been UConn’s 4th worst since ’97, though the previous three all feature 3 games from the ’97 cluster-suck.
So, the important thing to keep in mind is that this isn’t UConn’s worst stretch ever. Yes it’s rough, and relative to expectations you could argue that it’s the most disappointing, but it hasn’t been the worst. Also, if you want cosmic synergy try this on for size. The worst 5-game runs from ’87 and ’97 both ended with losses to Georgetown, UConn’s most recent opponent. The only worse 3-game scoring period ended with a victory over…Seton Hall. UConn plays the Pirates on Saturday. And hey, at least there isn’t a 7 in 2012.
